Madrid Open Betting Preview: Mariano Navone vs. Ben Shelton
One of the most captivating matchups on Friday's Mutua Madrid Open schedule pits Ben Shelton against Mariano Navone in the Round of 64. This clash marks a rematch of their Indian Wells encounter, where Shelton secured a relatively comfortable 6-3, 6-2 victory. However, a closer look reveals compelling reasons to consider Navone as a valuable underdog pick.
Analyzing the Rematch: Why Navone Could Upset Shelton
Shelton's potent serve is undoubtedly his biggest weapon, and it will prevent a one-sided affair. Yet, Madrid demands more than just a powerful serve. While considered server-friendly, it still allows for baseline rallies. Navone's superior clay-court prowess presents a significant advantage in extended exchanges. His career record stands at 21-17 on clay, contrasting Shelton's 14-14, with four of those wins in the Houston Open. This surface advantage significantly favors Navone.
Navone’s exceptional clay-court returning skills are another key factor. He won't passively accept defeat in Shelton's service games; instead, he'll employ strategic court positioning and tactical shot selection to create opportunities. Conversely, Shelton's returning ability is less consistent, and Navone's strong clay-court serve adds to his overall advantage.
Navone's recent performance against Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard further strengthens his case. While Shelton is a better baseliner, Mpetshi Perricard's superior serve mirrors some aspects of Shelton’s game style, providing insight into Navone's ability to neutralize such strengths. Navone's handling of Mpetshi Perricard suggests he is well-prepared to counter Shelton's service dominance.
Shelton's Fatigue Factor
Shelton's recent run to the Munich final, involving two grueling three-setters, is a crucial consideration. Fatigue, both physical and mental, can significantly impact performance. The travel and adjustment to a new tournament after such a demanding week could further hinder his effectiveness. If Shelton doesn't deliver his best, Navone is poised to capitalize.
Tactical Considerations
Navone will likely target Shelton's backhand, employing shots with heavy topspin to exploit its potential weaknesses. This tactic could force errors from Shelton or create scoring opportunities for Navone. The match is expected to be a close encounter, emphasizing the importance of strategic play and consistent performance under pressure.
The Pick
Considering all factors—surface advantage, Navone's strong returning ability, Shelton's potential fatigue, and the tactical possibilities—Navone presents a compelling underdog pick. His ability to extend rallies and challenge Shelton's serve significantly increases his chances of victory.
