Austria's 2024 budget deficit reached a staggering 4.7% of GDP, exceeding the Maastricht criteria and sparking widespread concern and debate among economists and politicians.
Austria is grappling with a significant budget crisis. Newly released figures from Statistics Austria reveal a shocking 4.7% deficit for 2024, a substantial increase from the 2.6% recorded in 2023. This alarming figure far surpasses the Maastricht Treaty's 3% threshold, triggering concerns about potential EU deficit procedures and the overall health of the Austrian economy.
The primary cause of this surge is the disproportionate growth in government spending (8.8%) compared to revenue increases (4.9%). This disparity translates to an absolute deficit of €22.5 billion, significantly impacting the national debt, which now stands at €394.1 billion, pushing the debt-to-GDP ratio from 78.5% to 81.8% – well above the EU's recommended 60%.
Statistics Austria's director, Tobias Thomas, highlighted that a reduction of €8 billion in government spending would have been necessary to remain within the Maastricht limits. This situation has left Finance Minister Markus Marterbauer (SPÖ) facing a potentially unavoidable EU deficit procedure. He admits the possibility of saving more than the planned €6.4 billion this year is unlikely, deeming this figure a "massive effort." He expresses doubt about achieving a sub-3% deficit without negatively impacting the economy in the short term.
The situation is equally dire for other Austrian public authorities. The federal government's deficit increased from -1.9% to -3.5% of GDP, while states (excluding Vienna) saw their deficit rise from -0.1% to -0.4%. Municipalities and social insurance carriers also experienced increased deficits, though Vienna's situation is particularly concerning, with its deficit worsening by almost €400 million, partially attributed to investments in initiatives like kindergarten expansion and subway projects. Styria (€525 million) and Lower Austria (€486 million) also reported substantial deficits.
WIFO director Gabriel Felbermayr termed the figures "shocking," predicting an inevitable EU deficit procedure given the likelihood of similar figures in 2025. He stressed the need for serious consolidation efforts across all levels of government.
The blame game has begun, with AK President Renate Anderl criticizing previous governments for tax cuts without adequate counter-financing and for their handling of inflation. Similar criticism comes from the Freedom Party (FPÖ), which points fingers at former Finance Minister Magnus Brunner (ÖVP).
The Federation of Austrian Industries (IV) calls for efficient savings measures, emphasizing that Austria's high revenue ratio (51.6%, second only to Finland in the EU) indicates a spending, not a revenue, problem. The Greens advocate for greater state contributions to consolidation, while the Court of Audit President Margit Kraker demands a comprehensive reform plan with bundled responsibilities and transparent budgeting.
Experts like IHS head Holger Bonin suggest involving private households in the consolidation efforts, given their increased disposable income, while also calling for contributions from states and municipalities. He acknowledges that the recently reported €12 billion savings requirement might be the upper limit.
The outlook for 2025 remains bleak, with institutes like WIFO and IHS predicting slight economic contractions. While there's a degree of optimism regarding eventual economic recovery and constructive approaches from the new government, the immediate challenge is undeniably significant. The path towards budget consolidation will require substantial and coordinated effort from all levels of government and potentially private citizens.